Demographic Challenges
Figure 3.1: The Population Growth Has Improved Greatly Over the Decade and is Now Stable at 1.2%
At the time of the April 1, 1999 Census, the population of Vietnam
stood at just over 76 million, making it the 13th largest country in the
world. In a span of 20 years, nearly 24 million people were added to
the
country's population (Index Mundi, 2010). But, despite the addition of over 1 million people
per year, the rate of growth of Vietnam's population has been slowing
dramatically. Now in the year 2010, there is just under 90 million
inhabitants in Vietnam. By the end of the 1990s, the growth rate
declined to its
lowest point since reunification of the North and South Vietnam in 1975:
1.4
percent per year in 2000 (ndex Mundi, 2010).
From 1979 to 1989, the country's population increased by 22.7
percent, but from 1999 to 2009 the increase declined to 16.5 percent (Index Mundi, 2010).
This reduction can be traced by the government induced policy that
stated that no family should have more than two children.
Decrease in Population Growth
Figure 3.2: Estimated Population Pyramids in 2010, 2020, and 2050
Due to the rapid reduction in fertility and the increase in
life expectancy, the population of Vietnam has begun to experience an
accelerating process of aging. The population under age 15 has decreased
from 25 million in 1999 to roughly 23 million in 2010. Despite the decrease,
this is still a large number of young people who will need education and
employment. Over the same period, the population ages 60 and older will
increase from 6.2 million to 6.9 million, creating greater needs for
social security and health care services (Haub and Huong, 2003). This increase in the elderly
population will only be the beginning of a sharp rise in the size of
this group who, in 2020 will approach 11 million (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010). Such an increase in
this age group is unprecedented in Vietnam. The population in the prime
working ages (15-59) will go from 45 million to 59 million — a huge
potential for the country if these are workers well prepared for new
roles in Vietnam's new economy (Huguet,
2001).
Dependency ratios are the number of children (ages 0-14) or the number of elderly above the typical retirement age (over age 60) per 1,000 people of working age (15-59). When both young and elderly are combined to single ratio, it is called the aged-child dependency ratio. In Vietnam, the number of children per 1,000 people ages 15-59 (the child dependency ratio) has declined steadily since 1979, as would be expected given the decrease in the birth rate (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010). The number of elderly per 1,000 people ages 15-59 (the aged dependency ratio) has remained stable since 1979, but is projected to increase from 14 in 1999 to almost 17 by 2024 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010). This is a problem because the increase in dependency ratio will result in a halt of the demographic dividend. The demographic dividend is a rise in the rate of economic growth due to a rising share of working age people in a population. Therefore the market will go down in Vietnam, making it difficult to avoid poverty and illnesses.
Dependency ratios are the number of children (ages 0-14) or the number of elderly above the typical retirement age (over age 60) per 1,000 people of working age (15-59). When both young and elderly are combined to single ratio, it is called the aged-child dependency ratio. In Vietnam, the number of children per 1,000 people ages 15-59 (the child dependency ratio) has declined steadily since 1979, as would be expected given the decrease in the birth rate (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010). The number of elderly per 1,000 people ages 15-59 (the aged dependency ratio) has remained stable since 1979, but is projected to increase from 14 in 1999 to almost 17 by 2024 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010). This is a problem because the increase in dependency ratio will result in a halt of the demographic dividend. The demographic dividend is a rise in the rate of economic growth due to a rising share of working age people in a population. Therefore the market will go down in Vietnam, making it difficult to avoid poverty and illnesses.
Regional Disparity
Overall, the total fertility rate (TFR), or
the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime given
prevailing birth rates, declined to 1.9 by 2010. The dramatic nature of
the decline is
evident when we compare the current TFR to that of 1979: nearly 5
children per woman (Rosenberg, 2011). Despite the current low birth rate
level, there
remain wide regional
disparities across the country.
Only one-third of 61 cities and provinces have reached the replacement
fertility level or lower, while fertility remains high in the Northern
Uplands, Central Coast, and Central Highlands. Fertility in the Red
River Delta and in
the southeast is the country's lowest, in part due to the presence of
Vietnam's largest cities, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, respectively;
however they are most densely populated regions in Vietnam. Birth rates
are
nearly always lower in urban areas than in rural areas (SD, 1998).
Lack of Family Planning
Figure 3.3: Contraceptives could help Family Planning
Other
issues, including
only moderate prevalence of modern contraceptive methods, unplanned
pregnancies, and abortions have become
issues of great concern at a time of declining investment in the
population program. There is no guarantee that the reduction in
fertility observed so far is permanent. A high proportion of three or
more births and a continued preference for large families, particularly
by males, could cause a reversal of birth rate trends (Haub and Huong,
2003).
